{"published":"2026-04-01","pre_perihelion":true,"perihelion_utc":"2026-04-04T14:24:00Z","scoring_window":"2026-05-01 to 2026-05-15","audit_basis":"Independent technical audits by Grok (xAI) and DeepSeek, 2026-03-31","composite_success_criterion":{"primary":"Mean Brier score < 0.25 for all probability predictions","secondary":"Mean absolute error < 1.0 sigma for all quantitative predictions","note":"Success is claimed only if BOTH criteria are met simultaneously. Contingent predictions scored as N/A if antecedent fails. Control prediction (id=9) excluded from C/2026 A1 composite mean. Coupled pairs (10+11, 11+12, 1+5, 13+14) reported separately."},"scoring_rules":[{"id":1,"rule":"Brier score","formula":"BS=(0.55-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"SOHO/LASCO C2+C3","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":2,"rule":"Absolute error","formula":"AE=|obs-(-7)|","threshold":"AE<=2 mag","adjudicator":"COBS peak magnitude","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":3,"rule":"Absolute error","formula":"AE=|obs_time-14:20| hours","threshold":"AE<=3h","adjudicator":"SOHO photometry","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":4,"rule":"Absolute error","formula":"AE=|obs-30| degrees","threshold":"AE<=10deg","adjudicator":"CCD imaging","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":5,"rule":"Range check — CONTINGENT on #1","formula":"3<=obs<=5","threshold":"N/A if #1=false","adjudicator":"SOHO C2/C3","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":6,"rule":"Window overlap","formula":"Any report Mar31-Apr26","threshold":">=1 report","adjudicator":"COBS visual, MPC","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":7,"rule":"Brier score","formula":"BS=(0.75-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"SOHO/LASCO C2+C3","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":8,"rule":"Absolute error","formula":"AE=|obs-3|","threshold":"AE<=2 events","adjudicator":"SOHO C3 + CAG","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":9,"rule":"Absolute error — CONTROL","formula":"AE=|obs-3.5|","threshold":"AE<=1.5 mag","adjudicator":"COBS, MPC Apr20","scoring_polarity":"positive","control":true},{"id":10,"rule":"Brier score — INVERSE","formula":"BS=(0.15-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"Parker Solar Probe","scoring_polarity":"inverse","scored_as":0.15},{"id":11,"rule":"Brier score","formula":"BS=(0.80-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"DONKI CME catalog","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":12,"rule":"Brier score — INVERSE","formula":"BS=(0.10-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"DSCOVR L1","scoring_polarity":"inverse","scored_as":0.1},{"id":13,"rule":"Absolute error","formula":"AE=|obs_kp-5|","threshold":"AE<=1.5","adjudicator":"NOAA Kp archive","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":14,"rule":"Interval score","formula":"Interval [0.33,0.83]","threshold":"Storm occurs or not","adjudicator":"NOAA storm archive","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":15,"rule":"Brier score","formula":"BS=(0.70-outcome)^2","threshold":"BS<0.25","adjudicator":"SWPC advisory archive","scoring_polarity":"positive"},{"id":16,"rule":"Threshold check","formula":"surviving/total>=0.99","threshold":">=99% survival","adjudicator":"CelesTrak TLE","scoring_polarity":"positive"}],"coupled_pairs":[{"ids":[10,11],"relationship":"subset"},{"ids":[11,12],"relationship":"conditional"},{"ids":[1,5],"relationship":"antecedent"},{"ids":[13,14],"relationship":"physical"}],"control_predictions":[9],"excluded_from_composite":[9]}